Six months after the implementation of the OPEC production cut deal to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day, and we should be well on our way towards rebalancing - yet prices have recently reached a new low for the year. OPEC actually exported more crude in June than it did in October (the production cut deal reference level), while total global crude exports are over 10 percent higher than year-ago levels. While hope springs eternal, reality bites. OPEC exports in June outpaced year-ago levels by over 2 million barrels per day, with every country exporting more crude, with the exception of Algeria and Qatar. This stat alone goes some way to explaining why we are mired in mid-forty dollardom. But things could have been so different - as exemplified by April's export volumes. Not only did Saudi Arabia slash its exports in April, but it was joined by other members of core OPEC, Kuwait and UAE. The result was the first year-on-year deficit since early 2015. May played out in a similar fashion, as only a minor year-on-year surplus was seen as Saudi continued to crimp its exports. While 'OPEC versus US shale' is pitched like some heavyweight boxing match, too much emphasis is being placed on rising US production. That said, shale production is contributing to the excess of light crude that is available in the global market. The Wall Street Journal highlighted yesterday how China has been pulling in an increasing amount of U.S. crude, given the favorable movement in the spread betwixt WTI and the Dubai-Oman benchmark this year. A similarly advantageous move in the Brent / Dubai-Oman spread has prompted an even more prominent response in U.K. North Sea arrivals to China - climbing above 400,000 bpd last month for the first time. According to Occidental Petroleum, the owner of the most prolific crude-exporting terminal in the U.S. at Corpus Christi, U.S. exports could reach 3 million barrels per day in the coming years. This excess of light crude available in the global market is being joined by West African barrels, and specifically from Nigeria. It is estimated this week that there are at least 40 Nigerian cargoes to be loaded in August looking for buyers. (Let's save the topic of rocketing Libyan exports for another time).