Dubai: Despite the rather extended slowdown in buying activity between Ramadan and the end of the summer, chances are that car sales in the UAE could still cross the 420,000 unit mark this year.

That would compare well with the 400,000 units that passed through showrooms last year, according to industry estimates. (In the year to end September, showroom movements were estimated at 313,000 units.) The estimates suggest that there was enough happening in terms of demand generation during the first-half of the year, which could replicated in some form in the coming weeks before the year is out.

“Even if one were to strip out that between 20-25 per cent of the sales to date ended up in the export markets, there’s still sufficient depth of buying happening and which remained on the UAE roads,” said Michel Ayat, CEO at Arabian Automobiles Co, the Nissan dealership for Dubai and the northern emirates. “These are valid numbers based on combined data collected from the industry.

“If the year ends at the 420,000 units mark, that’s still a fairly decent level of growth. And the fact is the UAE remains the market with the highest auto sales growth in the UAE — and among all the key markets worldwide. Rather than just say demand has gone down, the industry should reckon on what’s achievable.”

Based on these estimates, vehicle volume growth in Saudi Arabia was an anaemic 2 per cent in the first three quarters, while the UAE did 4 per cent. Qatar, too, was in positive territory with 1.3 per cent, but growth tanked in the other Gulf territories during the same period. (The overall car sales volumes during the first nine months across the Gulf is reckoned at 1.32 million units, more or less unchanged from the 1.31 million during the comparable period in 2014.) Local dealerships say a timeout from the super-charged growth put in over the last four years comes with the territory. “If we did 15, 20 or 30 per cent growth year-on-year, there will come a time when growth also needs to drop below 10 per cent or even less,” said Khalid Eisa, Chief Operating Officer at Juma Al Majid Group and the dealership for Hyundai and Kia. “No one can keep running at the same speed all the time.

“But a market like Saudi Arabia has been more volatile than the UAE has been to date. There’s still enough happening, and we should see that continue given that the build up to the Expo 2020 deadline is a very real one.”

UAE’s dealerships reckon they would have done well in 2016 if they get to maintain the same levels they take in this year. A few percentage points over 2015 would be the topping.

“If a few things change here and there to spur demand — maybe on the fleet side or for commercial vehicles — 2016 could see a push to the 450,000 unit mark,” said Ayat. “It’s still doable and that’s what all dealerships should be aiming for.”